Coalition or Tory government in disguise

May 18th, 2010

So the unspeakable has happened the Liberal Democrats have jumped into bed with the Conservatives. Nick Clegg held true to his pre-election promise of working together with other parties to tackle some of the big issues.

I’ve listened to all the arguments and I’m still not sure this was the right thing for the Lib Dems to do and the longer this political marriage lasts the more harm I think it will do them.

I think it is terribly sad that we were promised in the post decision speeches by both Cameron and Clegg that this is the start of a new style of politics and the two parties would work together to provide a progressive Government. What a shame then that the Cabinet is anything less than progressive with only four posts for women and only one none white person. With a Home Secretary and Minister for Women and Equality, Theresa May, who has an appalling record of voting against gay rights issues.

Everyone championed Clegg and the Lib Dem negotiators on having struck a fantastic deal. I really don’t see it myself. Looking at the Cabinet: Clegg as DPM, a role in which he can easily be pushed into the background with, it would have been nice to see Clegg get the Foreign Office or Home office position; Chris Huhne as Energy & Climate Change, not likely to cause widespread offense to the Tories and it seems politically sensible to appoint a liberal thinking person to this position; Danny Alexander as Scottish Secretary, given the Conservatives have no power in Scotland an obvious move, David Laws as Treasury Secretary, he is on the liberal wing of the Lib Dems and won praise from some Conservatives for his work on children, families and schools; Vince Cable as Business Secretary, now this has to be the most exciting appointment, his high profile in the public eye and senior position in the Lib Dems made him sure to get a position of some kind but given the recession I can’t help but think it is yet again smart politically thinking to put sweet Uncle Vince in charge of tackling those nasty bankers. I really don’t think the Lib Dems have done as well as they ought to have.

Alright so I’ve assessed the Cabinet, what about the important stuff – the policies.

The Economy:
The Conservatives pretty much got what they wanted: an emergency budget, the £6bn of spending cuts, the scrapping of the 1% rise in National Insurance tax although the Lib Dems can be pleased that the coalition has plans to effect a rise in income tax allowances for the lowest paid workers from April 2011.

Education:
Even stevens, the Conservatives get to go ahead with their “free schools” (whatever that means) whilst the Lib Dems get a commitment to reduced class sizes.

Foreign policy:
Well Trident is still on the political agenda, a major climb down by the Lib Dems. Both sides have different views on involvement in the EU we wait to see if that will cause problems in the coalition.

Health:
Apparently NHS spending is to rise in real terms every year of the Parliament. I’ll believe it when I see it! The Lib Dems argued that NHS funding could be cut, another Conservative victory.

Civil Liberties:
The ID card scheme has been scrapped, a point both parties agreed on.

Immigration:
The Lib Dems were forced into making a major concession here as the Conservative cap on immigration from outside the EU is going to be introduced as for any kind of amnesty – you must be joking.

The environment:
There was broad speaking agreement on environmental issues although the issue of nuclear power caused a bit of a rumpus. The Conservatives will be allowed to push forward with building new power plants, however, the Lib Dems will be able to abstain on this issue but under the terms of their agreement they will not be able to bring down the government with a no confidence vote over it.

Political reform:
The big deal for the Lib Dems. The Conservatives concession to allow a referendum on the Alternative Vote system is a victory for the Lib Dems and shows that the Conservatives were prepared to make a deal with the Lib Dems. However it must be noted that AV is not proportional representation and analysis from the Electoral Reform Society shows that the introduction of AV would have made little difference to the election results, the Liberal Democrats likely only gaining 22 seats. Presumably despite the agreement on a referendum, the Conservatives would still be able to campaign against it. Even though it is not the Lib Dems holy grail of the single transferable voting system it would be a step forward and would get the electorate used to the concept of preference voting.

The overview looks overwhelmingly like the Conservatives were able to hold onto most of their key policies whilst perhaps only conceding to a referendum on AV. I’m not sure I can see this ‘blinder’ that everyone seems to think the Lib Dems played.

The next few months/years will be interesting to watch. I think the coalition might well last longer than most think as in my mind the Tories haven’t lost very much and it would probably harm the Lib Dems to be seen to bring down the government by backing out and presumably siding with Labour in a vote of no confidence.

I do think the Lib Dems have potentially done themselves a lot of political damage as some of their grass root support has turned against them and if the Coalition government makes some tough decisions and become popular then their support could quite easily shift to a Labour party waiting in opposition.

Given my position outlined above I’m not even sure I can see the positive of a watered down Tory party with the Lib Dems protecting us from their most right wing of policies. In stead it seems like we will end up with a Coalition producing largely Tory policy which the Lib Dems will struggle to support but be to afraid of the ramifications of dismantling.

On the election : my two penneth

May 10th, 2010

For what it’s worth…

I’m writing this for the self satisfying purpose of getting my thoughts out of my head and with the vain hope that someone else might read this and take a little interest.

As a young twenty-something with a long term interest in politics watching the current political happenings unfold has been rather exciting with ever increasing shades of horror. It certainly isn’t like watching one of my earliest political memories of Labour riding to victory on the crest a red wave in 1997.

It strikes me that no one seems to be highlighting what an incredibly fragile position our political system is in right now. I had, as I know many others did, an agonising decision to make about where to put my cross last Thursday, I even spent 10 minutes sitting on the park bench outside the primary school where my polling station was located, head in hands, worrying about whether my choice was going to be the right one. In the end I voted Lib Dem and my vote was won over on the need to pursue electoral reform and the strong campaigning of my local Lib Dem candidate, Bridget Fox, had done on investigating copyright and the Internet and the possible repealing of the Digital Economy Bill, she even had Cory Doctorow singing her praises “Bridget, a former librarian, has the makings of a hero of the information age”. What made my decision so difficult was that Emily Thornberry the incumbent Labour MP had only narrowly clung onto power in 2005, by a mere 484 seats, and a Lib Dem victory would increase the chances of a Conservative majority government. From my point of view as a lefty (hander and politically) this was a terrifying thought. I stuck with my heart and voted Bridget but in the end as we saw across the county Lib Dem support was squeezed and first past the post delivered for the Conservatives and Labour and Emily Thornberry survived, actually increasing her majority.

The story of election night was how poorly the Lib Dems performed, (under)achieving at a net loss of five seats. Labour were bound to loose seats dramatically and that they did with a net loss of 91 and the Conservatives gaining 97 but as we have been constantly reminded since, still 20 seats short of an overall majority.

The endless news coverage from then on has been on whether the Lib Dems would support Cameron and form a coalition, be it loose or more formal. Clegg is now in an incredibly dangerous position. If he decides he is going to back the Conservatives in any kind of power sharing deal then he risks outraging many of those that voted for him, who did so to keep out the Tories or simply disagree with the Conservatives policies. I suspect there are a significant number of Lib Dem MPs who would still reject the deal even if concessions were made and some of their colleagues were allowed to join the cabinet. To my mind the political differences between the parties are too difficult to properly reconcile and even an agreement now would prove fragile at best, despite the smart money being on the talks progressing well. On the other hand, Clegg fought an election campaign where he actively sought to work more closely with the other parties, regardless of the result, to sort out the big political problems and restore faith in politics. Is this then not a glorious opportunity for Clegg and the Lib Dems to work side by side with those in another party for the good of everyone, is that not what we the public wanted? I’m not all that convinced that it is. For the most part those that voted Conservative wanted change, but change to a Conservative government; those that voted Labour either wanted to stand by Labour or to keep out the Tories; it was only some of those that voted Lib Dem that liked the idea of collaboration and the message of change to the political landscape. For those that did envy the Lib Dems holding the balance of power, I don’t think they expected it to be with the Conservatives; who will never grant them their star prize of electoral reform but rather with a slightly injured Labour party albeit minus Brown.

So Clegg is trapped in the old adage of rock and hard place, side with the Tories and try and find some common ground but potentially sever (potentially irreparably) some of his own support and party or, the alternative, reject Cameron’s offer and look to work with Labour. There’s a mathematical problem though, even together Labour and the Lib Dems do not have enough seats to carry them over the 326 mark. So where would that leave us? A rainbow coalition of Labour, Lib Dems, SDLP, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Green with just over 326? Would that be a great thing for politics so many parties working together to try and find some common ground or a ridiculous mish-mash which could collapse at any point? That seems to suggest that should the Lib Dems not agree to support the Conservatives then a minority Conservative government would have to take the reigns but that is completely untenable, the upshot being more than likely an almost immediate election one I’m sure the Conservatives would just about scrape a majority out of. Suddenly our bastion of strong government, the first past the post system, doesn’t look so powerful anymore. Had we a proportional representation system we would be used to coalitions and parties would be more prepared to work together now. Analysis by the Electoral Reform Society today shows that under the single transferable vote system the electoral spoils would have been divided up as follows, Conservatives 246 seats, Labour 207 seats and Lib Dems 162 seats.

So I leave you with the options as I see them:

Clegg supports Cameron and an unstable alliance is formed, the Lib Dems are tarnished in the eyes of some of their voters and a new election is called in less than 12 months.

Clegg sides with no one, the Conservatives try for minority government and an election is called almost immediately.

An attempt at a rainbow coalition is tried for which could rule briefly and we’d see an election within 12 months.

Or,

My current hope for the political future of this country and Clegg’s get out of jail free card – The Grand Coalition. Clegg has one last card up his sleeve, I can’t see him or his party wanting to purely deal with the Conservatives without some major concession on electoral reform which is about as likely as likely as Ahmadinejad striking a deal with Musavi. Clegg’s best bargaining chip has to be to tell Cameron the only chance of a successful deal which wouldn’t outrage his own party (and voters) is to give Brown a seat at the table too. Clegg needs to come out and publicly suggest that Labour be formally invited to discuss with along with the Conservatives and the Lib Dems about all three sharing power in a coalition with members of each party being allowed positions in the cabinet which would work together to solve the economic crisis and restore the faith of the British public in politicians. That way Clegg stays true to his desires to work together and doesn’t seem to be cow-towing to the Conservatives. Would it work? Probably not, we’d still see another election within a year but it would be a great victory for the British people. Discuss.