So the unspeakable has happened the Liberal Democrats have jumped into bed with the Conservatives. Nick Clegg held true to his pre-election promise of working together with other parties to tackle some of the big issues.
I’ve listened to all the arguments and I’m still not sure this was the right thing for the Lib Dems to do and the longer this political marriage lasts the more harm I think it will do them.
I think it is terribly sad that we were promised in the post decision speeches by both Cameron and Clegg that this is the start of a new style of politics and the two parties would work together to provide a progressive Government. What a shame then that the Cabinet is anything less than progressive with only four posts for women and only one none white person. With a Home Secretary and Minister for Women and Equality, Theresa May, who has an appalling record of voting against gay rights issues.
Everyone championed Clegg and the Lib Dem negotiators on having struck a fantastic deal. I really don’t see it myself. Looking at the Cabinet: Clegg as DPM, a role in which he can easily be pushed into the background with, it would have been nice to see Clegg get the Foreign Office or Home office position; Chris Huhne as Energy & Climate Change, not likely to cause widespread offense to the Tories and it seems politically sensible to appoint a liberal thinking person to this position; Danny Alexander as Scottish Secretary, given the Conservatives have no power in Scotland an obvious move, David Laws as Treasury Secretary, he is on the liberal wing of the Lib Dems and won praise from some Conservatives for his work on children, families and schools; Vince Cable as Business Secretary, now this has to be the most exciting appointment, his high profile in the public eye and senior position in the Lib Dems made him sure to get a position of some kind but given the recession I can’t help but think it is yet again smart politically thinking to put sweet Uncle Vince in charge of tackling those nasty bankers. I really don’t think the Lib Dems have done as well as they ought to have.
Alright so I’ve assessed the Cabinet, what about the important stuff – the policies.
The Economy:
The Conservatives pretty much got what they wanted: an emergency budget, the £6bn of spending cuts, the scrapping of the 1% rise in National Insurance tax although the Lib Dems can be pleased that the coalition has plans to effect a rise in income tax allowances for the lowest paid workers from April 2011.
Education:
Even stevens, the Conservatives get to go ahead with their “free schools” (whatever that means) whilst the Lib Dems get a commitment to reduced class sizes.
Foreign policy:
Well Trident is still on the political agenda, a major climb down by the Lib Dems. Both sides have different views on involvement in the EU we wait to see if that will cause problems in the coalition.
Health:
Apparently NHS spending is to rise in real terms every year of the Parliament. I’ll believe it when I see it! The Lib Dems argued that NHS funding could be cut, another Conservative victory.
Civil Liberties:
The ID card scheme has been scrapped, a point both parties agreed on.
Immigration:
The Lib Dems were forced into making a major concession here as the Conservative cap on immigration from outside the EU is going to be introduced as for any kind of amnesty – you must be joking.
The environment:
There was broad speaking agreement on environmental issues although the issue of nuclear power caused a bit of a rumpus. The Conservatives will be allowed to push forward with building new power plants, however, the Lib Dems will be able to abstain on this issue but under the terms of their agreement they will not be able to bring down the government with a no confidence vote over it.
Political reform:
The big deal for the Lib Dems. The Conservatives concession to allow a referendum on the Alternative Vote system is a victory for the Lib Dems and shows that the Conservatives were prepared to make a deal with the Lib Dems. However it must be noted that AV is not proportional representation and analysis from the Electoral Reform Society shows that the introduction of AV would have made little difference to the election results, the Liberal Democrats likely only gaining 22 seats. Presumably despite the agreement on a referendum, the Conservatives would still be able to campaign against it. Even though it is not the Lib Dems holy grail of the single transferable voting system it would be a step forward and would get the electorate used to the concept of preference voting.
The overview looks overwhelmingly like the Conservatives were able to hold onto most of their key policies whilst perhaps only conceding to a referendum on AV. I’m not sure I can see this ‘blinder’ that everyone seems to think the Lib Dems played.
The next few months/years will be interesting to watch. I think the coalition might well last longer than most think as in my mind the Tories haven’t lost very much and it would probably harm the Lib Dems to be seen to bring down the government by backing out and presumably siding with Labour in a vote of no confidence.
I do think the Lib Dems have potentially done themselves a lot of political damage as some of their grass root support has turned against them and if the Coalition government makes some tough decisions and become popular then their support could quite easily shift to a Labour party waiting in opposition.
Given my position outlined above I’m not even sure I can see the positive of a watered down Tory party with the Lib Dems protecting us from their most right wing of policies. In stead it seems like we will end up with a Coalition producing largely Tory policy which the Lib Dems will struggle to support but be to afraid of the ramifications of dismantling.
